The coming by-election this weekend in Pahang is yet another test for the grand old party, Umno at a time when it has been struggling for political support. Created in 1986, this rural/semi-rural constituency, a couple of hours outside of Kuala Lumpur, has long been an Umno stronghold.
For eight terms, Pelangai was held by Umno’s former menteri besar Adnan Yaakob before he retired in 2018. The late Johari Harun was a first-term representative elected last November, hoping to bring new ideas for development in an area that combines Felda settlements with a small town.
This piece details the voting history in this constituency, arguing that there are four factors that will shape the outcome of this election - Umno’s Malay support, loyalty among non-Malay BN voters, crossover of Pakatan Harapan non-Malay voters to Umno, and Umno’s persistent strength among younger voters in Pelangai.
Pelangai’s voting history replicates that of the past, when Umno was strong. This election will indicate whether the party is able to hold onto its past and maintain a stronghold seat and slow PAS’ extension of power.
Another Malay battle...
Pelangai is a Malay majority seat, with 72 percent Malay voters in a seat of 16,456 voters. Most Malays live in the Felda areas, so in this regard, the battle is also another Felda contest. In the 2022 election, Umno won an estimated 59 percent of the Malay vote in Pelangai, with Perikatan Nasional picking up only an estimated 35 percent and Harapan a mere estimated five percent.
This result speaks to how much of a Umno stronghold this seat is. Compared to other seats in Pahang, where Umno’s overall Malay support in this state was only an estimated 42 percent and PN’s an estimated 49 percent, Pelangai bucked the trend as Malay voters confidently stayed loyal to Umno. Since 2022, Malay support for Umno has eroded further as PN made gains across elections from as much as an estimated 22 percent gain in the state elections of Negeri Sembilan to an estimated seven percent in Kelantan in August’s six state elections.
The party leading in gains among Malays is PAS, contesting in Pelangai. Two key questions in assessing this contest are 1) how much will PAS gain among Malays in Pelangai and 2) whether this amount will be enough to win. Scenarios suggest that PAS can win Pelangai if it is able to secure 62 to 68 percent of the Malay vote, depending on turnout. This figure lies comfortably in the national patterns of Malay support for PN and PAS, but is a significant gain in Pahang (by at least 13 percent) and an even larger gain given the history of Pelangai (gain of 27 to 33 percent).
On the scope of Malay support swing alone needed to change the seat’s fortunes, Umno has a reasonable chance of retaining Pelangai. Yet, recent elections do show that a big “Green” swing is not impossible to achieve for PAS. The saliency of their campaign “Pahlawan Melayu” (Malay warrior) clearly points to Malay gains, but it is unclear whether it will reach the threshold for victory, as Malay votes is only one of many factors influencing the outcome.
BN’s non-Malay loyalty...
The second factor that will shape the outcome of the seat will be non-Malay support. Pelangai comprises 18 percent Chinese voters, six percent Indians and four percent Orang Asli and other communities. Each of these communities will shape the result, given the increasing competitiveness of the constituency.
What distinguishes this seat from the national pattern is the limited polarisation of voting along ethnic lines. Umno/BN won large shares of support among all of the communities in this seat, especially Orang Asli (estimated 82 percent) and Indians (estimated 51 percent). Even among Chinese voters, Umno/BN won an estimated 45 percent. The party did this in collaboration with its BN partners, MCA and MIC, as well as the pull of the Umno-led state government.
In many ways, voters in Pelangai will not only be deciding whether Umno’s Malay base is comfortable being in the unity government, but also whether non-Malay voters who voted for BN in the past are comfortable in the unity government. There is dissatisfaction among some non-Malay BN voters who feel left out of the unity government, but it is not yet clear whether this will be decisive.
Noteworthy, however, is that PN did not win any support from non-Malays in 2022. PAS will hope to make gains, picking up on possible disgruntlement. It will face an uphill task, as PAS support among non-Malays in Pahang in the past two elections has been extremely low.
Harapan crossover to Umno...
Non-Malays in this seat, whether they return to vote and who they vote for, will matter. As Malay support drops for Umno, there is greater dependence on non-Malay support. Another factor in this seat will be whether there will be Harapan crossover to Umno, notably whether Chinese and Indian voters will support the latter. These communities turned out less than others in 2022, but turnout levels were reasonably high then.
This by-election turnout and Harapan crossover to Umno will be crucial. Depending on the level of turnout and the scope of Malay swing, Umno will need at a minimum of a third of traditional Harapan Chinese support and half of traditional Harapan Indian support to hold onto the seat.
It will also need to win over the estimated five percent of Malays who voted for Harapan in 2022 but are not asked to vote for Umno. Ironically, Umno now depends on the support of voters who have long opposed it.
The national trend has been a growing electoral co-dependence among unity government parties/coalitions, with crossover votes essential for securing victories in now primary two-major contenders contests. Pelangai puts the spotlight on how much Umno is now dependent on support that it has not won before.
Youth factor...
Another group that Umno will depend on is younger voters, an issue that was tied to the controversy about the selection of the candidate from Umno. Unlike the national trend, Umno won the majority of younger voters under 30 years of age, an estimated 60 percent in 2022. These voters make up a quarter of the electorate in Pelangai.
The age group that Umno had the least support in 2022 is another quarter of the electorate, those in their 40s, where the party only won an estimated 48 percent. PN will be focusing on these two groups of voters under 40 years of age in this election, hoping to win over youth voters as it has done elsewhere.
Umno’s ability to hold youth support will be decisive. Reminiscent of the Mat Kilau film, the “pahlawan” imagery is geared toward strengthening its appeal as the PAS campaign moves away from its Islamist roots to a broader ethnonationalist message.
Relevancy for Umno
The stakes for this by-election may appear little nationally, but, for Umno, the Pelangai result will go to the heart of its future, nationally and in Pahang. Given the stakes that the Umno state leadership has invested in the campaign, securing a seat of a former MB, its electoral strength is also being tested.
The campaign has prominently featured the use of incumbency at the state level and access to the federal government, suggesting that a PN victory will not yield gains to voters. This reliance on incumbency is an old message Umno has used in the past that it hopes will continue to be relevant.
In Pelangai, Umno is working to reaffirm its relevancy. Its leaders are not connecting to the same degree as in the past. The outcome will indicate whether the party is able to swim, merely tread water or is in fact drowning from lower support from voters, both young and old and across communities.
The result will indicate whether it is holding onto enough of its base. It will also indicate whether the party can begin to secure a new base through its electoral co-dependence on its unity partners and through a crossover vote. Unlike in the past, this Umno stronghold seat is competitive. It is far from a sure win for the party.
If Umno loses and PAS does beat the odds and secure a victory in the former’s traditional stronghold, Umno will indeed be drowning well beyond the levels described by its leaders in the campaign. Indications a few days out of the voting day are that Umno should have its head above water, but it is still struggling to swim. - Bridget Welsh. - mk
PMX turun bukan tanda Umno terdesak...
Suasana di sekitar kawasan DUN Pelangai lebih hingar-bingar daripada biasa. Sebabnya Perdana Menteri Anwar Ibrahim turun ke kawasan itu dari petang hingga ke tengah malam untuk bersua muka dan bertentang mata dengan pengundi seramai mungkin. Tiga majlis diatur untuk PMX, bermula dengan “Karnival Segalanya Felda” di Felda Chemomoi. Selepas solat Maghrib, beliau kemudian ke majlis Kenduri Rakyat sempena ulang tahun ke-36 Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia (AIM) di Kampung Agropolitan Chemomoi yang berdekatan.
Pada waktu yang hampir sama dengan majlis kedua itu, pengacara majlis di Ceramah Mega Perpaduan Madani di Dataran Simpang Pelangai sibuk mengehadkan masa barisan penceramah kepada masing-masing lima minit saja untuk meluangkan secukup masa kepada Anwar sebagai penutup ceramah.
Pimpinan Barisan Nasional (BN) dan Pakatan Harapan (PH) daripada Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail, Sharkar Shamsudin, Shamsulkahar Mohd Deli, Rosni Zahari, Mohamad Alamin, Isa Samad, Mohd Nizar Najib, Nurul Amal Mohd Fauzi, Aminolhuda Hassan, T Murugiah, Young Syefura Othman, Lokman Noor Adam, Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki dan Mohd Sany Hamzan semuanya dihambat supaya turun pentas melewati lima minit.
Ahli Majlis Kerja Tertinggi (MKT) Umno Ahmad Maslan pun hanya sempat menjual empat rangkap pantun dan setibanya perdana menteri, mengumumkan: “Saya rasa saya nak baca pantun ni di hadapan perdana menterilah ya. Bandar Kuantan ada hikayat, kisah bersemi cerita bersama, kita berjuang untuk rakyat, dulu kini dan selama-lama.” Ahli politik akan sentiasa cari peluang untuk skor poin! Cuma Presiden Amanah Mohamad Sabu dan Presiden Umno Zahid Hamidi mendapat sedikit tambahan masa di pentas ceramah itu.
Anwar memanfaatkan kira-kira sejam ceramahnya untuk menjelaskan isu-isu semasa yang antara lain merangkumi topik mengapa kerajaan perpaduan pimpinannya dicemburui dan akan kekal sehingga habis penggal, adanya usaha untuk memecah-belah, pentingnya tatakelola yang amanah, usaha berterusan membanteras rasuah, kenaikan harga barang yang mendapat perhatian kerajaan sehinggalah kepada kekurangan beras tempatan di pasaran.
Perdana menteri juga meminta pengundi agar tidak melihat rakan dalam kerajaan perpaduan, DAP sebagai musuh, apatah lagi parti itu melalui setiausaha agungnya Loke Siew Fook menyokong dalam mesyuarat Jemaah Menteri langkah melupuskan hutang peneroka sebanyak RM8.3 bilion. Nada pertuturannya serius dan tegas sambil Anwar mengakhiri ceramahnya diiringi calon BN Amizar Abu Adam di atas pentas untuk diperkenalkannya kepada khalayak sebagai pilihan untuk terus membela nasib mereka.
Mungkin bukanlah sangat isu-isu berkenaan yang menjadi perhatian, sebaliknya kedatangan perdana menteri dikatakan untuk melonjakkan sokongan kepada calon Umno itu dalam PRK Pelangai, Sabtu ini, pada ketika parti kerajaan itu didakwa sedang berdepan ujian getir kerana meningkatnya “gelombang hijau” PN di kawasan berkenaan.
Khamis lalu, Wan Rosdy selaku pengarah pilihan raya bagi PRK Pelangai ketika berucap kepada jentera BN di Kampung Jawi Jawi dekat Bentong berkata laporan yang diterimanya menunjukkan sokongan pengundi masih belum memihak kepada BN. Malah, menteri besar Pahang itu memberitahu penyokong BN di DUN Pelangai supaya menasihatkan anak-anak mereka yang tidak menetap di kawasan itu agar tidak pulang mengundi jika tidak menyokong BN.
DUN Pelangai dianggarkan memiliki kira-kira 2,000 pengundi luar dengan kebanyakannya menetap dan bekerja di Lembah Klang. “Anak-anak kita yang berada di luar, kalau dia tak bersama dengan kita, tak payah suruh balik. Biar duduk di Kolumpo (Kuala Lumpur) je. Mengacau je. Biar kita je yang menguruskan kampung halaman kita,” katanya. Beliau kemudian menjelaskan bahawa kenyataannya itu sekadar berseloroh.
Pemerhati mengandaikan BN kini di depan tapi belum selesa di sebalik PN — seperti kempen di Pulai dan Simpang Jeram bulan lalu – terus menyerang Zahid yang didakwa mereka mendapat DNAA kerana campur tangan eksekutif serta kononnya Melayu-Islam terancam ekoran kerjasama Umno dengan DAP. PN juga menggesa pengundi menambah wakil pembangkang di DUN Pahang.
Ahli MKT Umno Sharkar yang saban hari membantu jentera BN-Umno menolak kedatangan perdana menteri sebagai isyarat parti itu memerlukan bantuannya untuk melonjakkan sokongan pada minggu kedua kempen dengan jangkaan PN juga akan menampilkan pemimpin tertinggi mereka pada beberapa hari terakhir ini. Pengerusi BN Muhyiddin Yassin juga turun ke Simpang Pelangai dan berakhir di Felda Chemomoi malam tadi.
“Memang perebutan sebenar adalah di kawasan Felda – Felda Chemomoi, Felda Sungai Kemasul dan Felda Sungai Kemahal (di mana PN mendapat sokongan kira-kira 45% pada PRU15, lebih-lebih lagi dalam kalangan pengundi muda).
“PM, yang diketahui punya jadual padat dan akan ke Emiriah Arab Bersatu (UAE) Khamis ini, mahu menemui sendiri pengundi sebelum lawatan itu. Memang biasanya dalam mana-mana PRK, PM tak turun tapi ini bukan tanda Umno sedang terdesak. Ini selepas TPM (Zahid) datang dua malam berturut-turut pada Ahad dan Isnin.
“Lagipun, PM turun ke Pelangai memberi optik yang baik. Memang kita nak santuni pengundi mengikut segmen yang berbeza-beza dan seboleh-bolehnya kita mahu mendatangi terus kepada mereka,” kata Sharkar.
Kelebihan di pihak Umno tentunya sokongan masyarakat bukan Melayu, yang merangkumi 28% pengundi di DUN Pelangai. Keputusan PRU lalu menunjukkan BN dan PH meraih jumlah undi lebih kurang sama di dua pusat daerah mengundi (PDM) majoriti bukan Melayu di Manchis dan Telemong manakala PN ketinggalan jauh di belakang.
Malah, jentera PH-BN harus berasa sedap hati dengan hakikat kempen PN di kawasan-kawasan desa lebih perlahan. Program ceramah malam mereka kurang dihadiri pengundi walaupun menampilkan beberapa pemimpin utama hingga mendorong kempen dari rumah ke rumah dipergiatkan. “Mengikut bacaan kami, jika kami boleh mengekalkan momentum ketika ini, kami boleh menang. Cuma kami tidak mahu berasa terlalu yakin,” kata Sharkar lagi.- Hishamuddin Aun
Jana Wibawa: Muhyiddin files for
DNAA in 3 money laundering charges...
Having succeeded in his bid to be freed from four abuse of power charges linked to the Jana Wibawa programme, Muhyiddin Yassin has now filed to be granted a discharge not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) from the remaining three money laundering charges.
The former prime minister filed the notice of application at the Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court on Monday, and his legal team served copies of the application to the prosecution on the same day. Deputy public prosecutor Wan Shaharuddin Wan Ladin confirmed that they have been served copies of Muhyiddin’s application.
Previously, Muhyiddin’s legal team informed the Sessions Court that they intended to file the bid to set aside the three money laundering charges. On Aug 15, the Kuala Lumpur High Court allowed Muhyiddin’s application to nullify the four abuse of power charges against him, resulting in a full acquittal. However, the prosecution has since appealed to the Court of Appeal to reverse this acquittal.
‘Baseless charges’
Unlike a full acquittal, a DNAA opens the possibility of Muhyiddin being recharged for the same offence in the future, if prosecutors wish to do so. According to a copy of Muhyiddin's affidavit in support of the DNAA bid, the Bersatu president contended that the three money laundering charges are now baseless with the nullification of the four abuse of power charges.
The Perikatan Nasional chairperson claimed this was because money laundering charges depend on the existence of predicate (main) criminal charges such as abuse of power. He contended that with the four power abuse charges having been quashed, the three money laundering charges have become baseless.
Money laundering is the offence of disguising financial assets so they can be used without detection of the illegal activity that produced them. Through money laundering, the monetary proceeds derived from criminal activity are transformed into funds with an apparently legal source. In March before the Sessions Court, Muhyiddin claimed trial for four counts of abuse of power and three money laundering charges involving RM232.5 million. - mk
I thought he is very much against DNAA for his political rivals, condemning everyone and yet now asking for DNAA? - PurpleGhoper1703
Din should personally drag his son in law back to Malaysia to stand trial coz he and his son in law's cases are interrelated. Without his son in law how to to ask DNAA? He must be thinking the court is as intelligent as the people who support PN. - Angin Lintang
DPM got DNAA. You also try lah!!! - Smart Psychedelic Idiot
cheers.
Sumber asal: UMNO swimming in Pelangai?...
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